tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via San Jose, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SNA 06:45 → SJC 08:15WN 3858 1h 05m San Jose SJC 09:20 → HOU 15:10WN 3673 6h 25m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 06:45 → SMF 08:25WN 2669 2h 35m Sacramento SMF 11:00 → HOU 16:45WN 3782 8h 00m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 07:00 → DEN 10:25WN 4011 2h 05m Denver DEN 12:30 → HOU 16:05WN 1544 7h 05m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 06:45 → DAL 11:55WN 4320 1h 35m Dallas DAL 13:30 → HOU 14:45WN 29 6h 00m 98% 77%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 07:05 → PHX 08:30WN 3887 1h 55m Phoenix PHX 10:25 → HOU 15:05WN 3067 6h 00m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest 6h 58m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → SNA 08:01 → DFW 13:15AA 2372 3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:56 → HOU 18:19AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest 8h 18m 100% 74%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 07:45 → LAS 09:05WN 4296 2h 20m Las Vegas LAS 11:25 → HOU 16:35WN 4724 6h 50m 100% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 56m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051 7h 36m 73% 56%
AmericanDetails → SNA 16:34 → DFW 21:49AA 2688 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA 5h 22m 68% 50%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 14:10 → DEN 17:30WN 3086 1h 10m Denver DEN 18:40 → HOU 22:15WN 606 6h 05m 71% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON