tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 18:26, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 18:26 → DEN 21:47UA 2656 2h 12m Denver DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924 8h 01m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → DEN 10:16UA 513 2h 10m Denver DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853 8h 13m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 2h 44m Chicago ORD 15:53 → IAD 19:02UA 2437 9h 17m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 18:20 → SFO 19:51UA 2657 3h 14m San Francisco SFO 23:05 → IAD 07:30 +1UA 1083 10h 10m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 28m Houston IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388 10h 01m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 1h 57m Denver DEN 15:40 → IAD 21:11UA 421 7h 51m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 44m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 7h 37m 96% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 10:28 → SEA 13:17AS 471 2h 44m Seattle SEA 16:01 → IAD 23:59AS 406 10h 31m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SNA 18:46 → SEA 21:34AS 454 1h 09m Seattle SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367 8h 53m 73% 54%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56UA 1559 54m Newark EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784 7h 50m 70% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON