Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4296 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 4296 SNA 07:45 → LAS 09:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 2307 SNA 18:00 → LAS 19:15 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4296 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 07:45	LAS 09:05	7%	2%	0.6%	100%
WN 2218 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 09:00	LAS 10:10	15%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 4078 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 10:45	LAS 12:04	15%	6%	0.7%	87%
WN 3708 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 10:25	LAS 11:35	19%	4%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
DL 4179 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:59	LAS 21:17	22%	8%	0.9%	83%
WN 2274 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 14:00	LAS 15:20	33%	11%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
F9 3738 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 19:53	LAS 21:08	36%	14%	1.0%	72%
WN 2187 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 17:00	LAS 18:10	36%	13%	0.7%	57%
WN 3846 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 16:00	LAS 17:15	37%	13%	0.7%	71%
WN 2477 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 19:00	LAS 20:10	38%	10%	0.7%	67%
WN 2307 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 18:00	LAS 19:15	42%	12%	0.7%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON