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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732 8h 18m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → SNA 11:40 → DTW 19:06DL 1856 2h 44m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 9h 00m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 10h 42m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 2h 17m Denver DEN 16:00 → LGA 21:54UA 2168 8h 34m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → DEN 10:16UA 513 3h 43m Denver DEN 13:59 → LGA 19:53UA 1579 10h 08m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:50 → MSP 18:33DL 2061 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 7h 50m 89% 71%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 1h 51m Chicago ORD 15:00 → LGA 18:22UA 1617 8h 37m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 1h 13m Houston IAH 14:20 → LGA 19:04UA 2249 8h 19m 95% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SNA 10:55 → DEN 14:10WN 187 55m Denver DEN 15:05 → LGA 20:50WN 4233 6h 55m 74% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON