tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 19:27, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 19:27 → SFO 21:05UA 5339 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m San Francisco SFO 23:59 → MCO 08:34 +1UA 1267 10h 07m 99% 75%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 18:45 → SMF 20:10WN 3872 2h 00m Sacramento SMF 22:10 → MCO 06:15 +1WN 3799 8h 30m 97% 74%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 18:30 → PHX 19:55WN 3088 3h 10m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 +1WN 4508 8h 50m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 3h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 9h 57m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:36 → SEA 20:29DL 3999 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Seattle SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448 11h 04m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → DEN 10:16UA 513 3h 32m Denver DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501 9h 54m 100% 66%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 19:00 → LAS 20:10WN 2477 2h 40m Las Vegas LAS 22:50 → MCO 06:25 +1WN 4590 8h 25m 100% 65%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 23:29 → MCO 01:05 +1DL 1562 9h 50m 98% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SNA 19:32 → PHX 20:57AA 2685 54m Phoenix PHX 21:51 → MCO 05:00 +1AA 563 6h 28m 60% 39%
DeltaDetails → SNA 14:00 → ATL 21:38DL 329 47m Atlanta ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162 6h 58m 53% 31%
AmericanDetails → SNA 14:24 → DFW 19:44AA 2684 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:35 → MCO 00:21 +1AA 1336 6h 57m 54% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON