tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:03, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040 9h 37m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SNA 18:20 → SFO 19:51UA 2657 3h 03m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769 10h 19m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 9h 40m 93% 67%
AmericanDetails → SNA 19:32 → PHX 20:57AA 2685 2h 08m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654 7h 56m 84% 67%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 3h 51m Chicago ORD 17:59 → MIA 22:20AA 2690 11h 35m 98% 66%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 16:03 → MIA 18:20DL 1323 8h 35m 95% 66%
UnitedDetails → SNA 11:58 → IAH 17:20UA 2050 1h 41m Houston IAH 19:01 → MIA 22:40UA 1829 7h 42m 95% 64%
AmericanDetails → SNA 09:49 → PHX 11:12AA 2660 1h 40m Phoenix PHX 12:52 → MIA 20:28AA 1983 7h 39m 93% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SNA 19:32 → PHX 20:57AA 2685 1h 03m Phoenix PHX 22:00 → MIA 05:22 +1AA 2205 6h 50m 69% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON