tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2185 Delta Flight history → SNA 08:00 MSP 13:39 12% 4% 0.7% 85%
DL 2061 Delta Flight history → SNA 12:50 MSP 18:33 25% 7% 0.6% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → DEN 10:16UA 513 3h 26m Denver DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732 8h 01m 100% 85%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750 1h 06m Portland PDX 10:30 → MSP 15:58AS 1429 6h 58m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:00 → SEA 09:53DL 3695 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Seattle SEA 12:05 → MSP 17:37DL 941 8h 37m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 1h 59m Denver DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470 6h 26m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:36 → SEA 20:29DL 3999 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m Seattle SEA 23:59 → MSP 05:15 +1DL 953 9h 39m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185 3h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 8h 17m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 1h 21m Chicago ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298 7h 28m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SNA 13:05 → DEN 16:28UA 2132 2h 17m Denver DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076 6h 45m 95% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SNA 15:11 → ORD 21:50AA 2640 46m Chicago ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic 7h 11m 63% 54%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 08:05 → SEA 10:55AS 702 56m Seattle SEA 11:51 → MSP 17:19AS 509 7h 14m 69% 53%
AmericanDetails → SNA 16:30 → PHX 17:56AA 2659 54m Phoenix PHX 18:50 → MSP 23:58AA 3142 5h 28m 59% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON