Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4935 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 4935 SNA 07:00 → OAK 08:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3853 SNA 18:35 → OAK 20:00 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4935 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 07:00	OAK 08:40	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 3848 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 08:00	OAK 09:25	4%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 3849 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 10:05	OAK 11:30	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 4986 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 12:20	OAK 13:45	17%	5%	0.6%	65%
WN 312 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 20:30	OAK 22:00	23%	6%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
WN 170 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 16:15	OAK 17:35	31%	6%	0.6%	60%
WN 375 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 14:30	OAK 15:50	31%	6%	0.6%	54%
WN 3853 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 18:35	OAK 20:00	34%	7%	0.6%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON