Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 587 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 587 SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 1352 SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 587 United Flight history →	SNA 06:45	ORD 13:09	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 2590 American Flight history →	SNA 07:45	ORD 14:08	12%	5%	0.8%	88%
UA 2426 United Flight history →	SNA 10:37	ORD 16:53	16%	5%	0.6%	79%
AA 2679 American Flight history →	SNA 11:30	ORD 17:59	24%	7%	0.8%	77%
AA 2640 American Flight history →	SNA 15:11	ORD 21:50	25%	7%	0.8%	67%
UA 1352 United Flight history →	SNA 14:10	ORD 20:26	27%	6%	0.6%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SNA 06:45 → DEN 10:16UA 513	59m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	6h 10m	93%	80%
United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489	1h 16m Denver	DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617	6h 20m	94%	75%
American Details →	SNA 09:49 → PHX 11:12AA 2660	1h 03m Phoenix	PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338	6h 19m	87%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON