Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 750 SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 589 SNA 18:09 → PDX 20:31 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 750 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 07:00	PDX 09:24	8%	2%	0.8%	96%
AS 1405 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 10:57	PDX 13:21	11%	3%	0.8%	91%
AS 712 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 14:05	PDX 16:29	16%	4%	0.8%	92%
AS 589 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 18:09	PDX 20:31	16%	3%	0.8%	95%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON