Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3887 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 3887 SNA 07:05 → PHX 08:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3088 SNA 18:30 → PHX 19:55 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3887 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 07:05	PHX 08:30	5%	2%	0.6%	100%
AA 628 American Flight history →	SNA 06:46	PHX 08:16	10%	4%	0.7%	88%
WN 3290 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 08:35	PHX 09:50	13%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 2660 American Flight history →	SNA 09:49	PHX 11:12	17%	5%	0.7%	93%
WN 3329 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 11:05	PHX 12:25	23%	6%	0.6%	81%
WN 4944 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 11:50	PHX 13:20	23%	6%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
AA 3171 American Flight history →	SNA 13:24	PHX 14:50	33%	9%	0.7%	73%
AA 2655 American Flight history →	SNA 12:35	PHX 14:00	34%	10%	0.7%	66%
WN 3356 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 16:00	PHX 17:25	34%	10%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
WN 3857 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 20:45	PHX 22:05	34%	10%	0.8%	80%worse than usual
AA 2685 American Flight history →	SNA 19:32	PHX 20:57	35%	10%	0.9%	71%
AA 2659 American Flight history →	SNA 16:30	PHX 17:56	36%	9%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
F9 1720 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 14:27	PHX 15:53	38%	11%	1.5%	85%worse than usual
WN 4514 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 17:15	PHX 18:35	38%	12%	0.6%	52%
WN 3088 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 18:30	PHX 19:55	38%	10%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON