Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 1325 at 06:47 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–38%.

Safest bet that day AS 1325 SNA 06:47 → SEA 09:42 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 454 SNA 18:46 → SEA 21:34 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1325 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 06:47	SEA 09:42	12%	3%	0.8%	94%
DL 3695 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 07:00	SEA 09:53	17%	5%	0.6%	84%
AS 471 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 10:28	SEA 13:17	17%	4%	0.7%	92%
AS 702 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 08:05	SEA 10:55	22%	4%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
AS 548 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 12:05	SEA 14:54	23%	5%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
AS 760 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 14:45	SEA 17:32	26%	5%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
DL 3966 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 11:25	SEA 14:25	28%	7%	0.6%	76%
AS 774 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 17:32	SEA 20:20	29%	5%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
DL 3999 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 17:36	SEA 20:29	30%	6%	0.6%	78%
DL 952 Delta Flight history →	SNA 14:09	SEA 16:59	34%	7%	0.8%	67%
DL 2318 Delta Flight history →	SNA 18:45	SEA 21:36	37%	8%	0.9%	75%worse than usual
AS 454 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 18:46	SEA 21:34	38%	6%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON