Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 3251 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day AS 3251 SNA 06:45 → SFO 08:30 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 5562 SNA 09:45 → SFO 11:21 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3251 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 06:45	SFO 08:30	17%	7%	1.2%	93%
UA 1604 United Flight history →	SNA 07:00	SFO 08:31	22%	7%	0.7%	69%
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 16:12	SFO 17:50	24%	15%	1.1%	67%
AS 3495 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 20:25	SFO 22:03	25%	14%	1.3%	32%
UA 2657 United Flight history →	SNA 18:20	SFO 19:51	27%	12%	0.8%	41%
AS 561 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 13:06	SFO 14:51	27%	12%	0.8%	50%
AS 3248 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 18:03	SFO 19:33	27%	14%	1.2%	65%
AS 3269 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 14:46	SFO 16:20	29%	18%	1.1%	19%
UA 2823 United Flight history →	SNA 14:47	SFO 16:18	29%	14%	0.7%	35%
F9 3581 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 13:16	SFO 14:58	33%	16%	1.1%	61%
UA 5339 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:27	SFO 21:05	33%	19%	1.3%	50%
AS 3486 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 10:50	SFO 12:27	39%	18%	0.9%	49%
AS 3342 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 09:00	SFO 10:36	42%	20%	0.9%	40%
UA 5562 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 09:45	SFO 11:21	47%	23%	0.9%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON