Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1185 SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1159 SNA 13:44 → SLC 16:40 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1185 Delta Flight history →	SNA 07:15	SLC 10:13	11%	5%	0.6%	91%
DL 1198 Delta Flight history →	SNA 09:50	SLC 12:46	13%	6%	0.6%	92%
DL 3856 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:10	SLC 22:09	18%	7%	0.7%	82%
DL 1277 Delta Flight history →	SNA 17:03	SLC 19:58	19%	7%	0.6%	86%
DL 1159 Delta Flight history →	SNA 13:44	SLC 16:40	20%	7%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON