Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2669 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2669 SNA 06:45 → SMF 08:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3872 SNA 18:45 → SMF 20:10 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2669 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 06:45	SMF 08:25	3%	1%	0.7%	96%
WN 3868 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 08:50	SMF 10:15	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 1105 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 10:20	SMF 11:45	10%	3%	0.7%	100%
WN 3001 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 11:50	SMF 13:25	15%	4%	0.7%	88%
WN 3873 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 20:45	SMF 22:15	22%	5%	0.7%	76%
WN 3870 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 14:05	SMF 15:40	25%	6%	0.6%	84%
WN 3871 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 16:30	SMF 17:55	28%	7%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
WN 3872 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 18:45	SMF 20:10	32%	6%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON