Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3467 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 11:48	STS 13:37	21%	5%	1.5%	82%
AS 3432 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:14	STS 21:01	22%	5%	2.0%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750	1h 21m Portland	PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon	5h 26m	99%	91%
Alaska Details →	SNA 18:09 → PDX 20:31AS 589	1h 14m Portland	PDX 21:45 → STS 23:30AS 3115 · flown by SkyWest	5h 21m	93%	80%
American Details →	SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628	2h 01m Phoenix	PHX 10:17 → STS 12:30AA 3514 · flown by Envoy	5h 44m	97%	79%
Alaska Details →	SNA 10:57 → PDX 13:21AS 1405	1h 09m Portland	PDX 14:30 → STS 16:15AS 3483 · flown by SkyWest	5h 18m	93%	78%
Alaska Details →	SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760	3h 12m Seattle	SEA 20:44 → STS 22:51AS 3410 · flown by SkyWest	8h 06m	99%	73%
American Details →	SNA 09:49 → PHX 11:12AA 2660	2h 23m Phoenix	PHX 13:35 → STS 15:42AA 6459 · flown by SkyWest	5h 53m	93%	72%
Southwest Details →	SNA 10:25 → LAS 11:35WN 3708	3h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 14:55 → STS 16:35WN 2407	6h 10m	91%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON