Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1445 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 1445 SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3109 SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1445 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 07:04	ATL 08:45	3%	2%	15.7%	94%
DL 1499 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 06:00	ATL 07:39	3%	2%	15.6%	94%
DL 3196 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 11:01	ATL 12:41	7%	3%	17.3%	92%
DL 2438 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 15:18	ATL 17:05	10%	4%	17.3%	85%
DL 3104 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 12:50	ATL 14:32	11%	3%	17.3%	85%
DL 3115 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 19:59	ATL 21:48	13%	6%	17.5%	80%
DL 3109 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 18:22	ATL 20:13	14%	6%	17.4%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON