Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3876 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3876 SRQ 06:45 → BWI 09:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 983 SRQ 18:55 → BWI 21:20 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3876 Southwest Flight history →	SRQ 06:45	BWI 09:10	3%	1%	15.7%	96%
WN 1534 Southwest Flight history →	SRQ 12:10	BWI 14:35	12%	4%	17.4%	92%
WN 983 Southwest Flight history →	SRQ 18:55	BWI 21:20	26%	10%	17.5%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON