Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2264 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2264 SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 5627 SRQ 17:21 → CLT 19:29 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2264 American Flight history →	SRQ 06:21	CLT 08:15	7%	3%	15.5%	92%
AA 2693 American Flight history →	SRQ 11:37	CLT 13:35	13%	4%	16.1%	87%
AA 5627 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SRQ 17:21	CLT 19:29	22%	10%	17.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON