tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 2697 at 11:33, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2697 American Flight history → SRQ 11:33 DCA 13:59 17% 6% 17.9% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SRQ 05:15 → MDW 06:55WN 3288 1h 20m Chicago MDW 08:15 → DCA 11:10WN 2569 5h 55m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 27m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:42DL 737 5h 38m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → DCA 12:59AA 5527 · flown by PSA 6h 38m 98% 69%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 2h 35m Miami MIA 09:59 → DCA 12:37AA 2915 6h 15m 94% 64%
SouthwestDetails → SRQ 11:25 → BNA 12:30WN 4423 1h 25m Nashville BNA 13:55 → DCA 16:45WN 4380 5h 20m 97% 63%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850 6h 29m 98% 62%
SouthwestDetails → SRQ 06:15 → MCO 07:10WN 385 2h 35m Orlando MCO 09:45 → DCA 12:00WN 1908 5h 45m 98% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SRQ 16:30 → ORD 18:46UA 1400 59m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 6h 24m 75% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON