Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 2704 at 17:42, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2704 American Flight history →	SRQ 17:42	DFW 19:35	26%	11%	17.2%	52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 12m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	6h 40m	99%	71%
American Details →	SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 11:30 → DFW 13:16AA 1285	7h 55m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13DL 3109	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	6h 51m	97%	65%
American Details →	SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	1h 36m Miami	MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227	5h 50m	93%	64%
Delta Details →	SRQ 15:18 → ATL 17:05DL 2438	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → DFW 22:11DL 3161	7h 53m	99%	64%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921	5h 44m	98%	64%
American Details →	SRQ 17:21 → CLT 19:29AA 5627 · flown by PSA	3h 07m Charlotte	CLT 22:36 → DFW 00:29 +1AA 1271	8h 08m	98%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON