tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 14m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 29m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 2h 00m Newark EWR 10:53 → IAH 13:38UA 556 8h 38m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 16:30 → ORD 18:46UA 1400 2h 54m Chicago ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665 9h 04m 95% 67%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 15:18 → ATL 17:05DL 2438 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284 7h 06m 99% 65%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 14m Miami MIA 08:38 → IAH 10:29AA 1918 5h 07m 92% 64%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13DL 3109 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 6h 35m 97% 64%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → IAH 15:56DL 2890 5h 55m 98% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON