tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2412 at 14:30, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2412 Delta Flight history → SRQ 14:30 LGA 17:30 19% 11% 17.6% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SRQ 05:15 → MDW 06:55WN 3288 1h 10m Chicago MDW 08:05 → LGA 11:20WN 2038 6h 05m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 09:30 → LGA 11:43DL 557 5h 43m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 38m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 1h 05m Charlotte CLT 09:20 → LGA 11:15AA 1150 4h 54m 93% 65%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 16m Miami MIA 08:40 → LGA 11:43AA 1046 5h 21m 92% 63%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 15:18 → ATL 17:05DL 2438 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 8h 06m 99% 63%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524 5h 49m 98% 63%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 7h 37m 99% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SRQ 16:30 → ORD 18:46UA 1400 59m Chicago ORD 19:45 → LGA 23:15UA 1655 6h 45m 75% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON