tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 385 at 06:15, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 385 Southwest Flight history → SRQ 06:15 MCO 07:10 3% 1% 16.9% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SRQ 05:15 → MDW 06:55WN 3288 1h 05m Chicago MDW 08:00 → MCO 11:35WN 2817 6h 20m 98% 63%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 4h 57m 98% 62%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 1h 54m Charlotte CLT 10:09 → MCO 11:57AA 2074 5h 36m 98% 61%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 4h 56m 98% 60%
SouthwestDetails → SRQ 06:45 → BWI 09:10WN 3876 1h 20m Baltimore BWI 10:30 → MCO 12:50WN 1171 6h 05m 99% 60%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 42m Miami MIA 09:06 → MCO 10:22AA 1712 4h 00m 94% 58%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 1h 08m Newark EWR 10:01 → MCO 12:54UA 1739 6h 54m 96% 57%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13DL 3109 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 23:29 → MCO 01:05 +1DL 1562 6h 43m 98% 53%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SRQ 17:42 → DFW 19:35AA 2704 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:35 → MCO 00:21 +1AA 1336 6h 39m 74% 34%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 17:21 → CLT 19:29AA 5627 · flown by PSA 46m Charlotte CLT 20:15 → MCO 22:00AA 3200 4h 39m 70% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON