Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3288 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3288 Southwest Flight history →	SRQ 05:15	MDW 06:55	4%	1%	15.8%	95%
WN 3879 Southwest Flight history →	SRQ 17:45	MDW 19:25	26%	11%	17.4%	52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 56m	99%	74%
Southwest Details →	SRQ 06:45 → BWI 09:10WN 3876	3h 20m Baltimore	BWI 12:30 → MDW 13:30WN 435	7h 45m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 14m	98%	67%
Southwest Details →	SRQ 06:15 → MCO 07:10WN 385	1h 05m Orlando	MCO 08:15 → MDW 10:00WN 1340	4h 45m	98%	66%
Southwest Details →	SRQ 11:25 → BNA 12:30WN 4423	3h 45m Nashville	BNA 16:15 → MDW 17:50WN 2241	7h 25m	97%	63%
Southwest Details →	SRQ 12:10 → BWI 14:35WN 1534	1h 30m Baltimore	BWI 16:05 → MDW 17:10WN 997	6h 00m	94%	62%
Southwest Details →	SRQ 18:30 → BNA 19:25WN 4425	3h 10m Nashville	BNA 22:35 → MDW 00:10 +1WN 578	6h 40m	96%	60%
Southwest Details →	SRQ 15:25 → STL 16:45WN 3880	1h 45m St Louis	STL 18:30 → MDW 19:35WN 596	5h 10m	95%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SRQ 18:30 → BNA 19:25WN 4425	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 20:25 → MDW 22:00WN 4286	4h 30m	75%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON