tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4139 at 06:22, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4139 American flown by Envoy Flight history → SRQ 06:22 MIA 07:24 9% 3% 17.3% 95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 4h 57m 98% 72%
SouthwestDetails → SRQ 05:15 → MDW 06:55WN 3288 1h 05m Chicago MDW 08:00 → MIA 12:00WN 2464 6h 45m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 5h 58m 99% 67%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 2h 47m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 6h 50m 98% 65%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13DL 3109 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 6h 33m 97% 59%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 2h 38m Newark EWR 11:31 → MIA 14:38UA 2295 8h 38m 98% 58%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 5h 54m 98% 57%
SouthwestDetails → SRQ 06:45 → BWI 09:10WN 3876 2h 35m Baltimore BWI 11:45 → MIA 14:20WN 4737 7h 35m 99% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SRQ 17:21 → CLT 19:29AA 5627 · flown by PSA 46m Charlotte CLT 20:15 → MIA 22:21AA 2321 5h 00m 70% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON