tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 19:59, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1400 United Flight history → SRQ 16:30 ORD 18:46 24% 10% 17.6% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908 6h 58m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147 5h 10m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 1h 31m Newark EWR 10:24 → ORD 12:06UA 1525 7h 06m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894 6h 30m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 04m Miami MIA 08:28 → ORD 10:59AA 1431 5h 37m 91% 67%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 17:21 → CLT 19:29AA 5627 · flown by PSA 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 22:39 → ORD 00:01 +1AA 3014 7h 40m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13DL 3109 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 6h 31m 96% 65%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 11:37 → CLT 13:35AA 2693 2h 41m Charlotte CLT 16:16 → ORD 17:39AA 536 7h 02m 97% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON