tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 2700 at 12:23, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2700 American Flight history → SRQ 12:23 PHL 15:09 15% 7% 17.5% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SRQ 05:15 → MDW 06:55WN 3288 2h 05m Chicago MDW 09:00 → PHL 11:55WN 4901 6h 40m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 4h 57m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 6h 20m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 2h 45m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498 6h 22m 98% 69%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 51m Miami MIA 09:15 → PHL 12:10AA 551 5h 48m 94% 68%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 15:05 → PHL 17:12DL 1169 6h 11m 98% 66%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13DL 3109 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 37m 97% 65%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 16:30 → ORD 18:46UA 1400 2h 59m Chicago ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744 8h 27m 96% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON