Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3880 at 15:25, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3880 Southwest Flight history →	SRQ 15:25	STL 16:45	19%	5%	17.4%	52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	4h 43m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 13m	99%	74%
Southwest Details →	SRQ 05:15 → MDW 06:55WN 3288	55m Chicago	MDW 07:50 → STL 09:10WN 2900	4h 55m	92%	73%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	1h 00m Newark	EWR 09:53 → STL 11:41UA 3630 · flown by Republic	6h 41m	96%	72%
American Details →	SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → STL 11:55AA 2717	6h 34m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 14:09 → STL 14:48DL 2700	4h 47m	97%	69%
Delta Details →	SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13DL 3109	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 31m	97%	67%
Southwest Details →	SRQ 06:15 → MCO 07:10WN 385	1h 40m Orlando	MCO 08:50 → STL 10:20WN 4501	5h 05m	98%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON