Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1110 at 11:25 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1110 STL 11:25 → BNA 12:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest WN 482 STL 19:05 → BNA 20:10 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1110 Southwest Flight history →	STL 11:25	BNA 12:35	12%	2%	0.5%	77%
WN 3888 Southwest Flight history →	STL 14:30	BNA 15:40	20%	4%	0.5%	76%
WN 694 Southwest Flight history →	STL 17:35	BNA 18:45	28%	6%	0.5%	59%
WN 482 Southwest Flight history →	STL 19:05	BNA 20:10	31%	6%	0.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON