tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1467 at 14:20, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1467 Southwest Flight history → STL 14:20 CHS 17:20 19% 4% 0.6% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:40 → MDW 06:45WN 1008 1h 20m Chicago MDW 08:05 → CHS 11:25WN 356 4h 45m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 10:30 → CHS 14:15DL 2463 6h 54m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 3h 05m Chicago ORD 10:35 → CHS 14:06UA 3646 · flown by Republic 7h 06m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107 5h 00m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:50 → BWI 08:55WN 3894 2h 40m Baltimore BWI 11:35 → CHS 13:15WN 899 6h 25m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → STL 08:10 → AUS 10:10WN 3884 2h 55m Austin AUS 13:05 → CHS 16:45WN 269 7h 35m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179 5h 34m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:01 → EWR 09:30UA 648 2h 40m Newark EWR 12:10 → CHS 14:16UA 1760 7h 15m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 1h 00m Chicago ORD 10:35 → CHS 14:06UA 3646 · flown by Republic 5h 06m 72% 64%
UnitedDetails → STL 12:55 → IAD 16:07UA 4454 · flown by GoJet 1h 08m Dulles IAD 17:15 → CHS 19:07UA 4310 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 12m 74% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON