tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3899 Southwest Flight history → STL 12:50 CLE 15:20 15% 3% 0.5% 67%
WN 3900 Southwest Flight history → STL 20:55 CLE 23:30 24% 5% 0.5% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:40 → MDW 06:45WN 1008 1h 10m Chicago MDW 07:55 → CLE 10:10WN 4088 3h 30m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 04m Minneapolis MSP 10:00 → CLE 12:52DL 2057 5h 31m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:50 → BWI 08:55WN 3894 2h 15m Baltimore BWI 11:10 → CLE 12:30WN 1031 5h 40m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 1h 35m Chicago ORD 09:05 → CLE 11:41UA 3422 · flown by Republic 4h 41m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → STL 08:55 → MDW 10:00WN 2570 2h 15m Chicago MDW 12:15 → CLE 14:25WN 1813 4h 30m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:00 → LGA 09:35AA 4669 · flown by Republic 2h 05m New York LGA 11:40 → CLE 13:29AA 4388 · flown by Republic 6h 29m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 4h 32m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → CLE 13:32DL 775 5h 24m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 54m Chicago ORD 10:29 → CLE 12:58UA 2389 3h 58m 66% 57%
DeltaDetails → STL 12:35 → LGA 16:13DL 4922 · flown by Endeavor 1h 01m New York LGA 17:14 → CLE 19:19DL 5194 · flown by Endeavor 5h 44m 74% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON