Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 858 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 858 STL 05:10 → CLT 08:03 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 4937 STL 15:40 → CLT 18:30 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 858 American Flight history →	STL 05:10	CLT 08:03	4%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 2733 American Flight history →	STL 09:25	CLT 12:17	9%	4%	0.6%	90%
AA 712 American Flight history →	STL 07:32	CLT 10:30	9%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 2717 American Flight history →	STL 12:35	CLT 15:33	13%	6%	0.6%	71%
AA 2731 American Flight history →	STL 18:13	CLT 21:11	18%	5%	0.6%	75%
WN 4937 Southwest Flight history →	STL 15:40	CLT 18:30	21%	6%	0.5%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON