Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3902 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3902 Southwest Flight history →	STL 09:55	CMH 12:15	7%	2%	0.4%	92%
WN 4812 Southwest Flight history →	STL 20:35	CMH 23:00	34%	8%	0.5%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	STL 05:40 → MDW 06:45WN 1008	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 07:45 → CMH 10:05WN 4093	3h 25m	96%	91%
Southwest Details →	STL 05:50 → BWI 08:55WN 3894	1h 50m Baltimore	BWI 10:45 → CMH 12:10WN 4524	5h 20m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522	4h 48m	99%	90%
United Details →	STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet	3h 48m Chicago	ORD 12:48 → CMH 15:28UA 3554 · flown by Republic	7h 08m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	STL 05:05 → DAL 06:45WN 1396	1h 15m Dallas	DAL 08:00 → CMH 11:20WN 4386	5h 15m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626	3h 16m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → CMH 13:27DL 5774 · flown by Republic	5h 57m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 10:14 → CMH 13:05DL 2550	5h 44m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 13:54 → DTW 16:30DL 1371	3h 24m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	6h 08m	98%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 19:05 → ORD 20:39UA 4165 · flown by GoJet	51m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59UA 1492	3h 54m	61%	47%
Southwest Details →	STL 17:30 → DAL 19:10WN 1417	1h 00m Dallas	DAL 20:10 → CMH 23:35WN 1289	5h 05m	68%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON