Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1396 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1396 STL 05:05 → DAL 06:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 3904 STL 21:50 → DAL 23:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1396 Southwest Flight history →	STL 05:05	DAL 06:45	3%	1%	0.7%	90%
WN 23 Southwest Flight history →	STL 08:10	DAL 09:50	6%	2%	0.7%	72%
WN 4196 Southwest Flight history →	STL 09:45	DAL 11:25	8%	2%	0.7%	92%
WN 1322 Southwest Flight history →	STL 14:15	DAL 15:55	21%	5%	0.7%	64%
WN 3597 Southwest Flight history →	STL 19:10	DAL 20:50	31%	7%	0.7%	53%
WN 1417 Southwest Flight history →	STL 17:30	DAL 19:10	32%	7%	0.7%	36%
WN 3904 Southwest Flight history →	STL 21:50	DAL 23:30	33%	8%	0.6%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON