Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2261 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2261 STL 05:30 → DFW 07:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2491 STL 19:22 → DFW 21:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2261 American Flight history →	STL 05:30	DFW 07:27	5%	3%	0.9%	92%
AA 537 American Flight history →	STL 07:07	DFW 09:06	8%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 3194 American Flight history →	STL 08:38	DFW 10:37	11%	6%	0.8%	73%
AA 1410 American Flight history →	STL 09:44	DFW 11:38	11%	6%	0.8%	82%
AA 5655 American flown by PSA Flight history →	STL 13:14	DFW 15:10	17%	8%	0.9%	63%
AA 2712 American Flight history →	STL 17:13	DFW 19:15	22%	10%	1.0%	32%
AA 2491 American Flight history →	STL 19:22	DFW 21:20	28%	9%	1.0%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON