Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1626 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 1626 STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4822 STL 19:55 → DTW 22:30 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1626 Delta Flight history →	STL 06:30	DTW 09:04	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 2868 Delta Flight history →	STL 10:19	DTW 12:53	7%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 4177 Southwest Flight history →	STL 09:55	DTW 12:25	9%	2%	0.5%	76%
DL 1371 Delta Flight history →	STL 13:54	DTW 16:30	11%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 2822 Delta Flight history →	STL 18:04	DTW 20:39	13%	5%	0.6%	76%
WN 4822 Southwest Flight history →	STL 19:55	DTW 22:30	29%	5%	0.5%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON