Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4988 at 15:55, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4988 Southwest Flight history →	STL 15:55	ECP 17:40	21%	6%	0.6%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	STL 05:40 → MDW 06:45WN 1008	1h 55m Chicago	MDW 08:40 → ECP 10:50WN 2773	5h 10m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 48m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	STL 08:10 → MCI 09:15WN 3943	1h 25m Kansas City	MCI 10:40 → ECP 12:45WN 2552	4h 35m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:31DL 1359	5h 23m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823	4h 30m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	STL 05:05 → DAL 06:45WN 1396	2h 40m Dallas	DAL 09:25 → ECP 11:20WN 3032	6h 15m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	4h 33m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	5h 21m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON