tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4938 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4938 Southwest Flight history → STL 09:55 FLL 13:40 12% 3% 0.7% 79%
WN 3918 Southwest Flight history → STL 19:55 FLL 23:40 30% 8% 1.3% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:40 → MDW 06:45WN 1008 1h 05m Chicago MDW 07:50 → FLL 11:55WN 4409 5h 15m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 5h 23m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:50 → BWI 08:55WN 3894 55m Baltimore BWI 09:50 → FLL 12:20WN 4785 5h 30m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 54m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673 6h 04m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 6h 19m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:00 → HOU 07:05WN 3919 3h 05m Houston HOU 10:10 → FLL 13:40WN 4355 7h 40m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:14 → IAH 08:31UA 6283 · flown by Mesa 1h 29m Houston IAH 10:00 → FLL 13:47UA 2234 6h 33m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 3h 29m Chicago ORD 10:59 → FLL 15:13UA 279 8h 13m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 11:25 → ORD 13:03UA 4395 · flown by GoJet 57m Chicago ORD 14:00 → FLL 18:15UA 2635 5h 50m 68% 50%
UnitedDetails → STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 59m Chicago ORD 17:59 → FLL 22:15UA 2294 5h 53m 61% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON