tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4506 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record STL 08:43 IAD 11:55 18% 8% 0.3% 82%
UA 4454 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record STL 12:55 IAD 16:07 28% 16% 1.1% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → STL 05:10 → DEN 06:32UA 362 1h 28m Denver DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 7h 16m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 1h 10m Chicago ORD 08:40 → IAD 11:52UA 2277 4h 52m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 01m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:10 → CLT 08:03AA 858 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 11:05 → IAD 12:38AA 5220 · flown by PSA 6h 28m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 2h 07m Chicago ORD 11:07 → IAD 14:12UA 1869 5h 52m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 4h 00m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 8h 15m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:20 → ORD 10:52UA 5572 · flown by SkyWest 2h 38m Chicago ORD 13:30 → IAD 16:30UA 2794 6h 10m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 1h 56m Denver DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853 7h 52m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 16:48 → DEN 18:23UA 1483 50m Denver DEN 19:13 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 1412 6h 57m 74% 60%
UnitedDetails → STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Chicago ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202 5h 00m 72% 56%
UnitedDetails → STL 19:05 → ORD 20:39UA 4165 · flown by GoJet 1h 01m Chicago ORD 21:40 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 2766 4h 40m 70% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON