Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5580 at 14:57, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5580 STL 14:57 → IAH 17:16 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5580 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 14:57	IAH 17:16	17%	12%	0.6%	64%
UA 4579 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 08:35	IAH 10:50	7%	3%	0.0%	93%
UA 6283 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	STL 06:14	IAH 08:31	15%	3%	0.0%	85%
UA 6213 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	STL 11:10	IAH 13:25	15%	5%	0.4%	85%
UA 6284 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	STL 18:30	IAH 20:50	25%	8%	0.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON