tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3933 at 15:35, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3933 Southwest Flight history → STL 15:35 JAX 18:35 26% 5% 0.8% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:40 → MDW 06:45WN 1008 1h 55m Chicago MDW 08:40 → JAX 12:00WN 4499 5h 20m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 2h 27m Minneapolis MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392 7h 05m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:43 → DCA 09:46AA 309 2h 12m Washington DCA 11:58 → JAX 14:09AA 4340 · flown by Republic 6h 26m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923 5h 00m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:50 → BWI 08:55WN 3894 2h 40m Baltimore BWI 11:35 → JAX 13:35WN 970 6h 45m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 3h 12m Chicago ORD 10:42 → JAX 14:27UA 2427 7h 27m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 2h 09m Detroit DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994 6h 08m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024 5h 37m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 11:25 → ORD 13:03UA 4395 · flown by GoJet 57m Chicago ORD 14:00 → JAX 17:49UA 5807 · flown by SkyWest 5h 24m 68% 53%
UnitedDetails → STL 16:53 → EWR 20:30UA 3564 · flown by Republic 52m Newark EWR 21:22 → JAX 23:59UA 2335 6h 06m 66% 49%
SouthwestDetails → STL 17:40 → HOU 19:45WN 5065 50m Houston HOU 20:35 → JAX 23:55WN 4797 5h 15m 68% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON