Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3937 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3937 STL 08:10 → LAX 10:05 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 2269 STL 21:55 → LAX 23:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3937 Southwest Flight history →	STL 08:10	LAX 10:05	14%	2%	0.5%	85%
AA 6293 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 06:37	LAX 08:46	14%	5%	0.6%	88%
WN 2269 Southwest Flight history →	STL 21:55	LAX 23:50	33%	6%	0.5%	33%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	STL 05:35 → DEN 06:50WN 3909	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:50 → LAX 09:20WN 1568	5h 45m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	STL 05:45 → PHX 06:55WN 3967	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 07:55 → LAX 09:20WN 2427	5h 35m	97%	82%
Southwest Details →	STL 13:20 → PHX 14:30WN 3968	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 15:50 → LAX 17:10WN 2388	5h 50m	89%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON