Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4358 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 4358 STL 05:05 → MCO 08:25 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 3949 STL 18:15 → MCO 21:45 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4358 Southwest Flight history →	STL 05:05	MCO 08:25	2%	1%	10.3%	91%
WN 5060 Southwest Flight history →	STL 08:10	MCO 11:30	7%	3%	15.5%	85%
WN 3947 Southwest Flight history →	STL 09:55	MCO 13:15	9%	3%	15.5%	84%
WN 5049 Southwest Flight history →	STL 16:30	MCO 20:10	20%	10%	15.5%	68%
F9 2636 Frontier Flight history →	STL 16:09	MCO 19:49	20%	15%	17.9%	73%
WN 3948 Southwest Flight history →	STL 14:50	MCO 18:20	21%	9%	16.7%	36%
WN 3950 Southwest Flight history →	STL 20:00	MCO 23:30	22%	8%	15.5%	62%
WN 3949 Southwest Flight history →	STL 18:15	MCO 21:45	23%	10%	16.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON