Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1716 at 05:18 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1716 STL 05:18 → MIA 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2901 STL 12:45 → MIA 16:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1716 American Flight history →	STL 05:18	MIA 09:15	6%	3%	1.3%	96%
AA 3954 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STL 11:00	MIA 14:46	22%	7%	3.1%	90%worse than usual
WN 2901 Southwest Flight history →	STL 12:45	MIA 16:25	29%	8%	1.1%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON