Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4775 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4775 Southwest Flight history →	STL 08:15	MKE 09:25	5%	2%	0.5%	91%
WN 3406 Southwest Flight history →	STL 21:45	MKE 23:00	24%	6%	0.6%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	STL 05:50 → BWI 08:55WN 3894	1h 50m Baltimore	BWI 10:45 → MKE 11:50WN 1011	6h 00m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151	5h 53m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	2h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → MKE 11:17DL 561	4h 56m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	STL 05:40 → MDW 06:45WN 1008	3h 35m Chicago	MDW 10:20 → MKE 11:05WN 1702	5h 25m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246	6h 42m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006	6h 20m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 14:05 → MKE 15:04DL 2152	5h 40m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 15:57 → MSP 17:37DL 4167 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → MKE 21:41DL 4468 · flown by SkyWest	5h 44m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 12:23 → EWR 16:00UA 3573 · flown by Republic	47m Newark	EWR 16:47 → MKE 18:26UA 3562 · flown by Republic	6h 03m	74%	59%
Southwest Details →	STL 14:30 → BNA 15:40WN 3888	50m Nashville	BNA 16:30 → MKE 18:05WN 4733	3h 35m	74%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON