tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4780 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4780 Southwest Flight history → STL 08:15 MSY 10:00 6% 1% 0.6% 94%
WN 3964 Southwest Flight history → STL 21:50 MSY 23:40 27% 8% 4.6% 52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:35 → DEN 06:50WN 3909 1h 10m Denver DEN 08:00 → MSY 11:45WN 1642 6h 10m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:40 → MDW 06:45WN 1008 2h 05m Chicago MDW 08:50 → MSY 11:05WN 2834 5h 25m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 5h 37m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → STL 05:10 → DEN 06:32UA 362 3h 18m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 8h 29m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:43 → DCA 09:46AA 309 1h 59m Washington DCA 11:45 → MSY 13:27AA 3175 6h 44m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → STL 10:20 → ORD 11:52UA 4517 · flown by GoJet 2h 13m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MSY 16:49UA 3658 · flown by Republic 6h 29m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:55 → ORD 08:23AA 1926 1h 07m Chicago ORD 09:30 → MSY 12:05AA 4748 · flown by Republic 5h 10m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:14 → IAH 08:31UA 6283 · flown by Mesa 3h 24m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 7h 00m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 11:25 → ORD 13:03UA 4395 · flown by GoJet 1h 02m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MSY 16:49UA 3658 · flown by Republic 5h 24m 72% 61%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 50m Chicago ORD 10:25 → MSY 12:55UA 1850 4h 55m 60% 50%
SouthwestDetails → STL 17:20 → BWI 20:25WN 793 55m Baltimore BWI 21:20 → MSY 23:05WN 4567 5h 45m 68% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON