tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3027 at 16:35, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3027 Southwest Flight history → STL 16:35 MYR 19:30 21% 8% 0.6% 50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → STL 05:10 → CLT 08:03AA 858 3h 17m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 6h 26m 99% 92%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:40 → MDW 06:45WN 1008 1h 25m Chicago MDW 08:10 → MYR 11:20WN 1695 4h 40m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 2h 26m Minneapolis MSP 12:56 → MYR 16:40DL 2327 6h 51m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 6h 00m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → STL 11:00 → BWI 14:05WN 4614 3h 00m Baltimore BWI 17:05 → MYR 18:35WN 4367 6h 35m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 3h 30m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MYR 14:19UA 1332 7h 19m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 15:58 → ATL 18:43DL 2700 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:58DL 3074 7h 00m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:14 → PHL 09:34AA 1308 1h 19m Philadelphia PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont 5h 48m 95% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON