tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4318 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4318 Southwest Flight history → STL 08:10 OMA 09:25 4% 2% 0.4% 93%
WN 4912 Southwest Flight history → STL 21:45 OMA 23:05 26% 6% 0.5% 42%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → STL 05:10 → DEN 06:32UA 362 1h 33m Denver DEN 08:05 → OMA 10:46UA 5443 · flown by SkyWest 5h 36m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:35 → DEN 06:50WN 3909 3h 05m Denver DEN 09:55 → OMA 12:30WN 748 6h 55m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 1h 10m Chicago ORD 08:40 → OMA 10:27UA 1778 4h 27m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:40 → MDW 06:45WN 1008 3h 25m Chicago MDW 10:10 → OMA 11:35WN 2984 5h 55m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 43m Minneapolis MSP 10:39 → OMA 11:57DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest 5h 36m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:45DL 1125 6h 45m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 15:57 → MSP 17:37DL 4167 · flown by SkyWest 3h 53m Minneapolis MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest 6h 51m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:54 → DTW 16:30DL 1371 3h 15m Detroit DTW 19:45 → OMA 20:53DL 3715 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 98% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 50m Chicago ORD 10:25 → OMA 12:16UA 5589 · flown by SkyWest 4h 16m 60% 50%
UnitedDetails → STL 19:05 → ORD 20:39UA 4165 · flown by GoJet 51m Chicago ORD 21:30 → OMA 23:14UA 1625 4h 09m 61% 48%
SouthwestDetails → STL 19:20 → PHX 20:30WN 4615 55m Phoenix PHX 21:25 → OMA 01:55 +1WN 3311 6h 35m 62% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON