Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2805 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2805 STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 6352 STL 13:27 → ORD 14:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2805 United Flight history →	STL 06:00	ORD 07:30	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 1926 American Flight history →	STL 06:55	ORD 08:23	8%	6%	1.0%	74%
AA 4104 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STL 09:08	ORD 10:36	11%	5%	1.0%	94%
UA 5572 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 09:20	ORD 10:52	16%	8%	1.0%	74%
UA 1382 United Flight history →	STL 13:13	ORD 14:43	18%	9%	0.7%	71%
AA 4537 American flown by Republic Flight history →	STL 18:16	ORD 20:17	18%	8%	1.4%	79%
AA 3815 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STL 14:31	ORD 15:59	20%	8%	1.2%	76%
UA 1639 United Flight history →	STL 17:59	ORD 19:30	24%	10%	0.7%	66%
AA 4144 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STL 19:56	ORD 21:33	25%	8%	1.5%	59%
AA 6352 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 13:27	ORD 14:59	25%	12%	1.4%	65%
UA 4517 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 10:20	ORD 11:52	10%	1%	1.4%	90%
UA 4423 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 07:20	ORD 09:00	14%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 4183 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 08:00	ORD 09:35	28%	8%	0.5%	72%
UA 4395 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 11:25	ORD 13:03	29%	12%	2.8%	71%
UA 4165 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 19:05	ORD 20:39	30%	12%	5.7%	70%
UA 4452 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 15:22	ORD 17:00	37%	17%	5.4%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON